Presenting the first McNicholl ….
This
analysis uses a complex proprietary mechanism which factors in current
statistical positions, recent trends in performance and in-depth analysis of
likelihood of remaining performance.
Unlike some of you idiot-savants that retain player by player
handicapping of each teams rosters in your heads and then apply ridiculously
subjective opinions, this scientific approach applies a mathematical approach
and then an objective approach to analysis.
So, here are my predictions for the range of possibilities for each of the contenders for a money spot.
Zombies -
pretty much a lock for one of the first two spots but there is statistical
potential for collapse if combined with strong runs by one or more than the
others. They have the largest
statistical point swing potential of the contenders. On the downside - just
about every pitching category is a significant threat. A return to earlier season form by Jiminez
would really help as would a good dose of Wolfs bane and Lowe & Bush need
to continue to be lights out to snare the lucite burro down the stretch.
Amazins – need
to hang on in those hitting categories to preserve 2nd place. I’d be very concerned about that if I were
them. To get first they will not only need that but also need to improve from
good to very good in ERA and Ratio and we all know how those categories can
bend you over and make you their bitch.
I think 2nd place is their peak with a fall to third if one
of the others get hot down the stretch.
Far
Siders – “Delgado, Delgado,
I made you out of clay….”. Even
if Carlos the wonder dog comes down to earth, the offense should contribute as
well as one could expect. Pitching however is currently off the rails and
threatens to drop the boys from Bloomfield (or thereabouts) from the
money. I do not think Moehler is the
answer but what do I know. Kendrick better stay on the latest track he’s on (I
wouldn’t bet on that mudder either). If
a team below gets hot I think the Sliders are very susceptible to being tripped
up down the stretch.
Kaboomers - The oregano of 2nd
and 1st are out of reach for Louie Louie (ooh that was so bad I’m
gonna leave it in just to get an uncomfortable laugh). However, the stats show
that maintenance of his current scores would mean a virtual lock check for 4th.
. If combined with a stumble by the Far Siders, 3rd is in
reach. I see exactly that happening.
His good starters (e.g. Zambrano, Johan) on contending NL teams puts him in a
good position to gain a few points in Wins to offset the points lost in the
offensive categories and remain right where he is in points. Gee, Lou staying
pat? How unusual.. Thus by doing
nothing Lou stands to take 3rd place down the (big yawn and) stretch.
Blue
Quails – largest upside
potential of the teams on the board, but that’s only because of the hole that’s
been dug. Needs to improve a minimum of 7 points (all in pitching) and a team
above him to collapse. Has some pitching horses in the corral to give that a
run but this team isn’t a bet for the faint of heart. The entire pitching staff
will need to get hot – like now – and continue that way down the stretch
Love
Machine– Virtually out of
the money. Maximum potential barely reaches the bottoming out of all other
teams above them. Now, that said, they
do have the lowest downside of anyone. But they need a full 9 point net uptick
to have a prayer . If its going to come it has to come in pitching (e.g.Wins
with solid era). After Sheets and Kuroda, I just don’t buy Davis keeping it up,
Perez is in the wrong city, and Sanchez and Campillo hurt the cause. The
unrequited machine are gonna be watching from the sidelines down the stretch.
In summary:
I’m very tempted to predict the collapse of the Far Siders
to be so bad that I even sneak into the money but: a) gotta go with what the
stats tell me; b) predicting that would seal my fate(kiss of death); and c)
Marv just contacted me looking to trade which would influence the situation and
potentially could cause a time paradox with this article and the universe would
explode.
Intangibles: no one has the leeway for a any kind of
significant injury at this point and the transaction opportunities remaining
(most notably the roster expansion) are going to significantly influence this
years final standings. It will be very interesting to watch what happens with
that.
I probably should have waited until next week to write
this but my attention span is roughly that of a gnat so without further ado,
I’m going to put my bet in on my new computational system and predict: